A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
