Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
